Maybe This Time
Few places on earth can match Colombia's experience with the civil wars that have ravaged it during its 200-year history as an independent nation. By most counts, there were eight in the 19th century alone.
The current conflict, which dates from 1964, has been the longest-running in Colombia, or anywhere in the world, and Colombia's deadliest, exceeding even the bloodbath known as La Violencia between 1948 and 1958. Some 250,000 are estimated to have been killed (other figures are much higher) and 5 million displaced over the past 50 years. And it's been much more than a two-sided battle, at times being closer to a state of complete anarchy, as left-wing guerrilla groups, principally the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), have fought not just government forces but also each other and right-wing paramilitaries, for control of land, especially drug plantations, and drug trading. FARC sees itself as an embodiment of Bolivarianism, operating as a peasant army with a mandate to promote small-scale agrarianism and to fight against imperialism and Colombian elitism. But several countries consider it a terrorist group; it's accused of human rights violations by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the United Nations, and the American government and the EU. It regularly recruits teenage children, typically from poor households that can offer no good options, and who, once in, are prevented from leaving (Human Rights Watch estimates that a quarter of FARC's guerrillas are under 18). Murder, torture and sexual abuse against civilian women and recruits are standard forms of intimidation, with reports of forced abortions carried out by FARC doctors. Its annual revenue is put at $300 million a year, coming from the taxation of drug trafficking and gold mining, but also at times from ransom kidnappings, bank robberies, and extortion of landowners and even multi-national corporations.
Given this record, and given a succession of failed peace efforts over the past 30 years, many are at least skeptical that the current peace talks between the government and FARC, which started in Oslo in 2012 and are continuing in Havana, have any chance at all of ending this conflict. Colombia's President, Juan Manuel Santos, thinks otherwise. Facing re-election in May, and with therefore good reason to talk up the prospects of a deal, Mr. Santos predicted last week that negotiations, supported by both Cuba and Venezuela, had advanced sufficiently in recent months to make 2014 a historic year - "hopefully by the end of the year, we will have this deal done", he told the Guardian newspaper. The two sides have already reached draft agreements on rural development and political participation for minority parties. And there are independent reports coming from Havana of progress regarding drugs - one of five main items under negotiation - to be made public shortly as a pre-election boost for the President. Congressional elections earlier this month left the Santos ruling coalition in power (though with a smaller majority), and a recent Gallup poll shows most Colombians support the talks (though they are uneasy with the possibility of amnesty for, and political participation by, FARC fighters). All this enables the President to push forward with his peace initiative.
Timely implementation of any accord, if achieved and if passed by Congress, will be critical. President Santos is already calling for international help to provide funds and know-how to ensure the reintegration of guerrilla fighters into modern Colombian society. He characterizes the process as a swap of guns for votes. He tells fighters, "...many former guerrillas in Latin America are now heads of state, so think about it - let's stop the war". And he tells the world, "this is a tipping point, whereby we are building the conditions to build peace forever, not just for one or two years, but to change the history of this country, and to sharply reduce the global supply of cocaine".