Elusive Popularity
Seems being popular may not be a goal worth pursuing for elected officials from any point along the political spectrum.
In America, it's a reasonable conjecture that one of President Obama's wishes for the new year could have been simply that 2014 be better for him, at least politically, than 2013. So far, a different story is unfolding. On Tuesday this week, Republican David Jolly won, narrowly and surprisingly, a special election for a Florida Congressional seat (vacated by the death of long-standing member C.W. Bill Young), largely by advocating the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).Then on Wednesday, a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll placed the President's rating at 41% - "his worst job approval rating in the survey's history" - and only slightly above that of President George W. Bush (38%) just before the 2006 midterm Congressional elections in which the Republicans lost their House majority. Moreover, the slight decline to 41%, from 42% in January, was not a blip: the last time Mr. Obama's approval rating was above even 45% was in June 2013. It gets worse - the steady erosion over the past several months has come mostly from Democrats, a record 20% of whom now disapprove. The poll continued to show a near-majority of all respondents opposing Obamacare, and, more broadly, a majority opposing the President's handling of the economy. All this of course bodes badly for the Democrats either gaining control of the House, or more importantly holding their control of the Senate, in the upcoming midterms in November. And Republican domination of the entire Congress would virtually eliminate Mr. Obama's chances of building his legacy in his last two years in office.
A lot could change between now and November, of course. But it is difficult to identify any positive catalyst for the President. It is hardly likely to come from abroad, where events in a number of countries have reached crisis proportion and could easily worsen. The latest of these, in Ukraine, which may appear to be an old-style, cold-war showdown, is really yet another example of a failed country, economically desperate with little in the way of mature political infrastructure, that could easily split into at least two parts. While watching Mr. Putin exploit the West's apparent unwillingness to respond militarily in Ukraine (and previously in Syria), President Obama must continue dealing with numerous other foreign policy tests, trying to maintain some influence in an increasingly authoritarian Egypt, attempting to negotiate settlement with Iran regarding its nuclear program, restarting the Israeli/Palestinian peace process, withdrawing from Afghanistan, ending the ongoing slaughter in Syria, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, and preventing tensions between Japan and China from escalating beyond their persistent skirmishes in the East and South China Seas.
But it's not just the President and Democrats who are facing political challenges in the upcoming midterm elections. Circumstances are equally uncertain for some Republicans. At least six incumbent Republican senators face challenges - not only from Democrats, but first in primaries from so-called tea partiers from the right of their own party. Republican primary voters will at times pick candidates more for their ideological purity than their electability; thus, for example, one of the leading Republican contenders for the open seat in Georgia, Paul Broun, has described evolution and the Big Bang theory as "lies straight from the pit of hell". Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces a similar challenge, from within, from Matt Bevin, a businessman, a father of nine, and a basher of Obamacare, bank bail-outs and McConnell's pivotal role in raising the debt ceiling earlier this year. McConnell told the New York Times that he expects to "crush" Mr. Bevin in the primary (in part by massively outspending him). But he will remain vulnerable against his Democratic opponent. Apparently nearly 30 years of service as Kentucky's senior Senator, and of backroom deal-making in the Senate, are not sufficient to ensure easy re-election.
This eventful week did end with a rare display of bipartisanship in Washington. In an early celebration of St. Patrick's Day, the Irish Prime Minister arrived Friday for his traditional visit, among other things lunching with House Majority Leader Boehner who also invited President Obama, Vice-president Biden, and the press. Boehner and Obama were shown joining together in singing the chorus of "Wild Rover", a traditional Irish folk song. Perhaps both men felt this was one of the few ways left to them to reverse their sinking popularity.