Hong Kong Updated

In July, this writer released a note on China's increasingly forceful strategy of achieving complete political dominance over Hong Kong (Eroding Freedom). Given the highly-developed economic and social status of the city's 7.2 million residents (quick primer: Hong Kong's Human Development Index is 90.6; China's is 69.9), I suggested that Beijing would, however, face equally forceful opposition, as Hong Kong citizens would continue to push back vigorously through mass street protests supported by their still-unregulated social media activity.

But, in recent weeks, such push-back appears to have become less vigorous, even dispirited. On Sunday, only a few thousand protesters, compared with hundreds of thousands earlier this summer, showed up (albeit in pouring rain) in the city's financial district to listen to an address from Benny Tai, a founder of the Occupy Central pro-democracy movement. That same day, China had announced its formal rejection of completely free elections for Hong Kong's chief executive in 2017. Instead, the election process offered by China will maintain a secretive system wherein candidates are nominated by a 1,200-person committee, members of which are chosen by Beijing from the city's business community - a key sector which is regarded as being more interested in not offending China (quick primer: China is by far Hong Kong's biggest trading partner) than it is in democratic principles. According to the text of China's Sunday announcement, "the chief executive shall be a person who loves the country and loves Hong Kong". This is evidently code for someone who will not tolerate any challenge to the authority of the Chinese Communist Party. And just to reinforce the point, China's state-run People's Daily newspaper over the week-end described Hong Kong's chief executive as "a regional head in the People's Republic of China", suggesting that Beijing is moving away to an increasing degree from the "one country, two systems" concept enshrined in The Basic Law of 1997.

However aggressively Beijing is behaving towards Hong Kong, it is surely aware it must be careful in not pushing too hard. A majority of Hong Kongers, who may be mostly complacent - or pragmatic - today, might still object as 2017 nears. And there are broader Chinese concerns. Taiwan, the self-governing island of 23 million people claimed by China for decades, is watching the Hong Kong process closely; could, for example, Taiwan feasibly expect to enjoy meaningful economic and political freedom if it joined the Chinese mainland voluntarily? And when will citizens of large - and booming - Chinese cities, such as the 7 million in nearby Shenzhen, begin to demand that political freedom become part of its social fabric? Beijing Communists, at least sensible ones, are no doubt familiar with a lesson from history - that democracy can be contagious, and with a (sometimes long) lag, often accompanies economic growth.