The Vicious Circle of Violence and Economic Destruction

Professor Soji Adelaja, a distinguished American economist, has recently moved, from Lansing, Michigan, to Abuja, the capital of his home country Nigeria.

In Lansing, as long-time Director of the Land Institute at Michigan State University, Mr. Adelaja, inter alia, acted as an economic development adviser to Michigan's ex-governor Jennifer Granholm, forming policy aimed at reviving the state's depressed economy after the auto industry crisis. Now in Abuja, as an adviser to Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan in the new Presidential Initiative for the North East (PINE), and also attached to the office of Nigeria's National Security Advisor, he is once again assessing root causes, in this case, of the rise of the Islamist extremists, Boko Haram in, and the concomitant economic collapse of, north-east Nigeria since 2009.

Mr. Adelaja sees his mission as nothing short of devising and implementing a Marshall Plan for the impoverished north of his home country. His strategy is simple: in order to weaken and ultimately defeat Boko Haram, job creation is crucial. Here's why: the region is among the poorest in the world - even as Nigeria as a whole has become Africa's largest economy over the past decade. At least 10% of the region's 12 million people are in urgent need of food aid; most young men don't work, and have no prospects of finding work; more than 1,000 classrooms have been destroyed by Boko Haram over the past few years; skilled workers and entrepreneurs have migrated south; infrastructure is dilapidated. As a result, Mr. Adelaja estimates that a stunning half of the north-east economy has been destroyed, and perhaps as much as two-thirds.

The task of sparking economic development under such circumstances is daunting, as Mr. Adelaja is well aware. Critics believe that his emphasis is all wrong, that achieving peace is the first priority, without which development cannot be nurtured. And there is the question of budget: Jibrin Ibrahim, a political scientist in Abuja, thinks the $12 million that PINE has this year is far too small.

But given that the Boko Haram insurgency is now into its sixth year, it is evident that the Nigerian military alone is incapable, or unwilling, of bringing peace to the region. And as Mr. Adelaja points out, "Boko Haram recruits young men who feel left behind", who don't "have any connection to any opportunities". The key, then, to breaking the seemingly endless cycle of hopelessness and extremism may well just be Mr. Adelaja's focus on job creation. The Nigerian government, apparently receptive to the strategy, needs to re-think PINE's tiny annual budget - Mr. Adelaja's Marshall Plan for north-east Nigeria will require considerably more than the $12 million allocated for this year.