"Yes" or "No"
On Thursday, September 18, 2014, Scotland will vote in a referendum. Seven hundred years after the Battle of Bannockburn, in which the English army was defeated by the King of Scots Robert the Bruce during the wars of independence, and some 300 years after Scottish unification with England, about 4 million people (anyone living in Scotland who is at least 16 years old, and armed forces members serving abroad) can vote, yes or no, to this question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?". (Quick primer: the UK government gave temporary powers to the Scottish Parliament to hold the referendum under Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act, a piece of legislation that established the Scottish Parliament.)
So the campaign is underway, and it's full-speed ahead: Yes Scotland is the official campaign for independence; Better Together is the opposition. Just this week, the rhetoric kicked up considerably, with UK Prime Minister David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, and even Irish Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams, all entering the debate. Mr. Cameron set the tone, speaking emotionally from the Olympic Park in London last Friday, noting that he could not, with his Scottish heritage, bear to see the country "torn apart", and that "all 63 million of us (living in the UK) are profoundly affected" by the referendum. He cited "four compelling reasons" to save the Union: the economic benefits of being a bigger country, greater international clout, connections between people, and the cultural impact of the UK. Mr. Salmond replied that the Prime Minister was merely lecturing to Scottish voters in a "sermon from Mount Olympus".
A less emotional discussion was presented by Chancellor Osborne and Governor Carney, who focused on the issue of an independent Scotland sharing the pound sterling. This is something Scottish First Minister Salmond sees as feasible and sensible, given the close integration of the two economies. Mr. Osborne disagrees: "The pound isn't an asset to be divided up between two countries after a break-up, like a CD collection", he said, and if that weren't clear enough, he commented, "If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound", and that "there's no legal reason why the rest of the UK would need to share its currency with Scotland". Governor Carney, speaking two weeks ago in Edinburgh, was at one time thoughtful, technical, yet stark, in his warning that the failings of the Eurozone - especially the sovereign debt crises - show that a successful monetary union requires fiscal and political union, just what Scottish independence would erase.
Governor Carney's rational argument notwithstanding, the independence issue is highly-charged, and the recent onslaught from Westminster deriding Mr. Salmond's no-pain vision of independence could deal a death blow to the concept, or just as easily provoke a nationalist backlash from the Scots. Polling data (of which there are no shortages) do not yet provide any clear evidence for either side - Scottish voters prefer the Scottish National Party (SNP) when they vote on the composition of government in Edinburgh, but are not necessarily convinced that independence from the rest of the UK is best.
They have a few months to decide. Expect lots more polling and debate - rational and emotional - before the September referendum.