A Light Still Shining
There is a light shining in the Arab world, in tiny Tunisia, somewhat more brightly after elections this past week, though still at risk of flickering, or being extinguished.
Tunisians went to the polls this past Sunday to elect members of their national parliament - the second such vote since January 2011, when they brought down the 23-year rule of their autocratic leader, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, and sparked the uprisings across much of the Arab World known as the Arab Spring. Unlike in virtually every other every other Arab state today, however - and in particular contrast to its turbulent neighbors, Egypt and Libya - this election suggests that "Spring" may still be an appropriate description of Tunisian society, and its politics.
Some 100 political parties were vying for the 217 seats in the National Assembly. Two parties did well, but swapped places: the Ennahda party, the first Arab Spring Islamist movement to secure power in a free election, and the ruling party in the coalition government since winning nearly 40% of the vote three years ago, won 68 seats; it has conceded defeat to its main secular rival, the Nidaa Tounes party, which won 83 seats. Neither count, of course, constitutes an outright win, so another coalition government is certain. But before a new government is installed, parties must wait for a president to be chosen from 27 candidates in November's first- round and December final elections.
What is remarkable here is that the next ruling coalition government in Tunisia could be stable and effective. Tunisians have a relatively strong civil society, with a long tradition of liberal education and women's and minorities' rights A new Constitution, which allowed for this parliamentary election, is already in place. Significantly, the Ennahda party, is a disciplined but moderate Islamist group, and is not even advancing a presidential candidate, mitigating fears of secular Tunisians. Underlining its moderation, the party has learned a clear lesson from the downfall of former Egyptian President Morsi and his far more ideological Muslim Brotherhood backers. The Nidaa Tounes party counts among its members former Ben Ali-era figures who are described as honest and competent technocrats, capable of running the country, and focused on what most Tunisians now describe as their most pressing concerns, economic development, unemployment, and the high cost of living.
Much, however, could still go wrong as Tunisia continues its transition to democracy. Tunisians remain uneasy, and especially in regions away from their Mediterranean coast, struggle to get by. Among university graduates, nearly half are unemployed; an estimated 3,000 young Tunisians have joined jihadists in Iraq and Syria. Fiscal austerity measures are urgently required, including the reform of the subsidy system requested by the IMF. There is a risk that old-line secularists may still agitate to eliminate the Islamists altogether from politics. And the think-tank, International Crisis Group, warns there is a danger of criminal and radical jihad networks merging between the thinly-populated borders with Libya and Algeria. Western governments, evidently confounded by events across the Middle East, have a clear opportunity to ensure that the region's one bright light - Tunisia's emerging democracy - does not fade and implode.