"Mutti" Wins a Third Term

Of the eight German Chancellors of the Federal Republic of Germany (FDR), the political entity which came into existence in 1949 and reunited with East Germany in 1990, Chancellor Angela Merkel (referred to affectionately as "mutti", or "mother" in English, by the German people) is currently the fourth longest-serving in that office. With her victory in last Sunday's federal election, she is on track to become the third longest-serving, after Helmut Kohl from 1982-1998 and Konrad Adenauer from 1949 to 1963. Such stability can only be welcomed in an otherwise volatile European political and economic environment; Merkel herself was quick to announce immediately following the election that "our European policy course will not change".

But while the election results give Mrs. Merkel a few more years as Chancellor, and the European continent some continued certainty at its center, the next few weeks in the FDR will nonetheless be marked by intense horse-trading as the country's politicians work to form the next coalition government. The FDR has a parliamentary political structure, requiring either a majority or, in its absence, a coalition of two or more parties, for effective rule. As Merkel's conservative CDU/CSU bloc received only 41.4% of Sunday's vote, she must find a coalition partner to form a new government. Her former partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), failed to win even enough support to exceed the 5% threshold necessary to send legislators to parliament. Politically, this was a complete collapse of the FDP party, and leader Philipp Roesler has resigned.

Mrs. Merkel's remaining coalition options are problematic. The next largest party after Sunday's elections, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) , had earlier stated that it would not join the CDU, with whom it was in a "grand coalition" government before the 2009 election. This experience left the SPD feeling very much the junior partner, and cost the party significant electoral support from its more left-leaning members. And the SPD is on record for vehemently opposing Mrs. Merkel's policies of austerity for EU partners in southern Europe, notably Greece, Spain and Italy. Another possible combination would be a CDU link with the Green Party, which won 8.5% of the vote, but this would be, to say the least, an odd right-left coming together.

So the German political scramble is on. Europe can only trust and hope that it in no way resembles what occurs regularly in Germany's southern neighbor, Italy. In any case, the election confirms that Chancellor Merkel is easily Europe's dominant politician. With an eye now on her own legacy, she may even become a little less incremental - bolder - as she addresses domestic and European policy challenges.