Towards What End

If, when, and, especially, in what manner America strikes Syria militarily is the talk of the world. American preparations are well under way - it has four destroyers placed in the eastern Mediterranean, each loaded with Tomahawk missiles, and likely submarines similarly equipped. And earlier today it authorized Secretary of State Kerry to address the issue, who in extensive remarks, described Syria's President Assad's regime in clear terms as the brutal instigator of a chemical weapons attack in Damascus last week that killed almost 1,500 people, including at least 426 children. It was, according to the Secretary, an "inconceivable horror", to which America will respond "on its own timeline" with or without a UN mandate. Immediately after these remarks, President Obama removed any lingering doubt about a strike, saying the Syrian chemical attack threatened US national security interests. Notwithstanding yesterday's British rejection of possible involvement, the French today reiterated their willingness to assist the Americans.

So the month of September is likely to begin with world powers stepping into the Syrian civil war. The question is, to what end?  The cloud of Iraq, wherein America forced a rapid regime change more than a decade ago, only to experience years of '"boots on the ground", all of which has left Iraq nonetheless mired in sectarian violence, hangs over all foreign policy considerations. And, of course, there are numerous more current cautionary tales. Ridding Libya of the Gaddafi rule led to the murder of an American ambassador, and a country marked by daily violence, a political vacuum, and even a complete breakdown of the further development and export of its vast oil reserves. After a period of Arab Spring, Egypt's economy is collapsing, and the generals once again rule with their proverbial iron fist. Lebanon and Jordan are close to implosion, as they attempt to cope not only with their own sectarian upheavals but also with Syrian refugees. And then there is Afghanistan.

Obama says he wants to "send a signal" to the Assad regime. This is the so-called "limited response" approach to the "inconceivable horror". That America has waited so long, and is even now willing to do so little, suggests that governments in the Middle East, as well as both moderate and extreme rebel groups operating throughout the region, will be fighting amongst themselves for years to come. Little wonder that the "oil price risk premium" persists.