A Message
America has sent a warning to Egypt's generals. President Obama and his national security advisers decided earlier this week to delay the sale to Egypt of a further four F-16 fighter jets (eight out of a planned twenty had already been shipped). In doing so, the administration is attempting to strike a balance between, on the one hand, not endorsing the Egyptian military's action of overthrowing President Morsi's, Muslim Brotherhood-backed, democratically-elected government, yet, on the other, not condemning the military for stepping in to restore order while suspending the Morsi constitution. (Notably, President Obama has not called for Morsi to be returned to power or even released from detention.) A spokesman for the Pentagon stressed that holding up the F-16 sale was distinct from - not related in any way to - the process at the State Department of determining, in a strict legal sense, whether the military's action at the beginning of this month constituted a coup. It now appears that America's $1.3 billion in annual military aid to Egypt, dependent under the Foreign Assistance Act on the "coup" interpretation, will continue. State Department lawyers just last night issued an opinion that the US administration is not "legally required" to formally determine if a coup occurred. "We will not say it was a coup, we will not say it was not a coup, we will just not say", said a State Department official. Such a clever escape hatch for the administration.
In the face of the clear signal from America regarding the F-16 program, the Egyptian generals are nonetheless continuing to strengthen their hand. General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi delivered an unusual public message this week, calling on all Egyptians to "do me a favor" and join a demonstration (today) to show their support for the army. The Muslim Brotherhood has called for counter demonstrations, raising the potential for more violent clashes (expected at evening prayers tonight), and has characterized Mr. Sisi's plea as a declaration of civil war and a precursor to "massacres under false cover". Then, this morning, just to ratchet up emotions further in advance of the demonstrations, the military government announced that Morsi was being detained, not, as they said initially, for his own safety, but under suspicion of murder, kidnapping, and conspiring with the Palestinian militant group Hamas. (Morsi's exact whereabouts is unclear, even to his immediate family who have had no contact with him since the overthrow, and who are suing the army and General Sisi, locally and internationally, for kidnapping.)
Current and credible polls suggest that less than a quarter of Egyptians now support the Brotherhood - in the big cities, the proportion is even less. This is, overall, a secular society. It is peace, security, and the availability of petrol and bread, that matter to most Egyptians. If a democratic process has been interrupted, there at least is a government in place that is regarded as competent, and committed to the return of order, and then elected rule, as soon as possible.
Thus, the Arab Spring - at least in Egypt - has been suspended. The fascinating question now is if or when, and in what form, it will return. America (and international investors, and lenders such as the IMF) will be watching carefully.