A Coup?

Late last week, this writer wondered whether the weekend would bring an anniversary celebration of Egypt's freely-elected President Morsi's first year in office, or a collapse of his government. With army helicopters flying over Cairo's Tahir Square, and  hundreds of thousands of protestors throughout Egypt demanding Morsi's resignation, collapse is the likely scenario in the days ahead.  

Egypt's army, historically a key player in the complex Egyptian political mix (it ousted Hosni Mubarak in 2011, but has stayed firmly in the background during the Morsi presidency), issued a clear ultimatum yesterday, read over state television  - President Morsi, you have 48 hours to resolve the unrest, or we will set a new "roadmap, enforced under the military’s supervision”. At the same time, six of President Morsi's cabinet ministers, including the Foreign Minister, resigned between Sunday and today. Egypt's highest appellate court also upheld the removal of the country's prosecutor general, Talaat  Abdallah, whom Morsi appointed. 

Morsi is digging in, demanding the army withdraw its ultimatum. But the army is again ready to rule, at least for a temporary period - it would install an interim council, composed mainly of civilians from different political groups and experienced technocrats, to run the country until an amended constitution was drafted within months, and new elections were called. Its over-riding interest is to prevent a full-scale civil war, such as that in Syria, now spreading to much of the rest of the Middle East.