Unchanged?

After all the rallies, debates and ads, after all the noise, falsehoods and money, the political landscape in America is essentially the same this morning as it was yesterday. Democracy can be odd and messy.

President Obama won 303 electoral votes (perhaps more, depending on the outcome in Florida), comfortably above the 270 required to win, because he won two major "swing" states (Virginia and Ohio), which did not swing from their positions in 2008. He is leading, barely, in the other big swing state - Florida (here's a surprise - the closeness of the Florida result may trigger a re-count), and he won Pennsylvania, which the Romney camp actually thought might swing. The President also prevailed despite a few minor swing states, such as North Carolina and Indiana, that did swing - towards Mr. Romney. The popular vote was, as polls were suggesting, much closer than in Obama's 2008 victory. Tellingly, especially for immigration policy, Mr. Romney won only 27% of the Latino vote (George Bush won 40% in 2004). Watch for a major policy initiative on immigration coming out of Obama's second term.

Yesterday's Congressional elections have left the balance of power unchanged as well. The House is still controlled by Speaker Boehner's Republicans (even though a few first-term tea partiers were turfed), and the Democrats, under Harry Reid, continue to rule the Senate.

So, does all this indicate that gridlock persists? Does the country inevitably fall over the impending fiscal cliff? The hope is that Mr. Obama, refreshed with another four-year mandate that this time he cannot renew, really will "reach across the aisle", as he said he will in his acceptance speech last night. And let's also hope he stops bashing business. As for the House Republicans, the hope is they start listening to business leaders, and to Mr. Simpson and Mr. Bowles, all of whom realize that America cannot continue to tax as though it were running a small government.

Early this morning, the markets welcomed the clarity of the election results, with the futures indicating a positive open at 9:30. No longer - Europe is back, with Mario Draghi  (the head of the European Central Bank)  pointing out that even the German economy is faltering. The Dow futures are down over 100 points.....