Tomorrow

Last week's Wall Street Journal/NBC Presidential poll indicates a dead heat. Among 1,475 likely voters sampled, 48% said they will vote for Obama, 47% supported Romney. Adjusted for statistical significance, that's a difference of 7 voters.

So, if readers want to focus as they watch tomorrow's media coverage, here's a guide. Follow the developing results in the three major swing states - Virginia (13 electoral college votes), Florida (29), and Ohio (18), but also in two states that have not voted for a Republican candidate in decades - Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10).

Virginia has been predominantly Republican since 1952. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, won the governorship in 2010.  But Obama won in 2008, a reflection of changing demographics in the state's rapidly growing northern counties around Washington D.C. Polls show the 2012 race is as tight in Virginia as it is nationally - 48% for Obama, 47% for Romney. It's likely to be long into tomorrow night, at least, before results in Virginia are clear.

Florida is the ultimate swing state. Like Virginia, it became primarily Republican in 1952, and its current Governor, Rick Scott, is Republican. But in recent decades, its changing demographics have resulted in a much more politically diversified electorate that nonetheless still leans very slightly Republican. Recall the closeness of the Bush/Gore election in 2000, when it required a Supreme Court decision to determine the winner. Obama prevailed over McCain in 2008, but the current polls suggest a race much too close to predict. Especially in Florida, an Obama victory  depends critically on turnout among minorities and young people.

Ohio is the predictor state. It has chosen a losing candidate - Richard Nixon - only once since 1944. George Bush beat John Kerry in 2004, barely; Obama won in 2008 by a 5% margin. Obama leads by about the same margin in current polls. Debate over the 2009 auto bailout seems to be favoring Obama. He initiated a government re-structuring of the industry which Romney heavily criticized. Obama wraps up his campaign today at a Columbus rally.

Two more states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, don't usually swing. This year, however, the Romney campaign, sensing that the 18 votes in Ohio may be Obama's, scheduled a late-in-the-game stop on Sunday, in Philadelphia, hoping to take the state's 20 electoral votes, which have gone to the Democrats every time since 1988, as compensation for the likely loss in Ohio. In Wisconsin, where Democrats have also won the six elections since 1988, polls show Obama ahead, though by a much smaller margin than in 2008. But the state has an activist Republican Governor, Scott Walker, who easily survived a re-call election this year, by a greater margin than in his 2010 election. And, of course, Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin.

Here are two predictions from this writer. First, Obama will win nationally, because he carries Ohio. Secondly, voting irregularities, with ensuing re-counts, will delay the final result.