F
Ford Motor Company's stock is up significantly this morning, from an admittedly low level. Such a one-day move isn't usually noteworthy, especially given the volatility in today's markets. But this uptick may just signify the beginning of turnaround #2 for Ford.
The first transformation is now well-known. It began in the Fall of 2006, when Alan Mulally arrived from Boeing to become Ford's new CEO. At the time, Ford was on track to lose $17 billion in their fiscal year; corporate survival was the issue. Within a few months, Mulally's team was - to understate the point - implementing a new strategy, closing North American plants, adopting global standards for design and engineering, accelerating new product development, and - to do all this - borrowing money from banks (about $23 billion) by offering its very brand logo (the blue oval) as part of the necessary collateral. It worked - Ford was able to say no to the bankruptcy route forced onto GM and Chrysler in 2009 by the Obama administration, and it is now profitable as a company as a whole. Estimates for Q3 profit, with actual numbers to be released next week, have just been revised upwards.
But one part of Ford still resembles what the entire company looked like in 2006. Its European operations are bleeding, with an announcement this morning from Ford that it now expects at least $1.5 billion of losses in Europe in the current year (compared to its earlier estimate of under $1 billion), as the ongoing destruction of aggregate demand has further exacerbated the continent's, and Ford's, production over-capacity. But the stock price is rising right now because of further announcements yesterday and today - that the company is closing plants in Belgium and Britain, and cutting 6,200 jobs. To gauge the significance, consider that these moves alone reduce Ford's European capacity by 18%, and its workforce by 13%.
Round two of the transformation is underway. It will take at least two years, Ford thinks. Patient investors should celebrate.